Awadhe Warriors – Preview

UPDATE:
Following a decision from The IBL management that Maneepong Jongjit will not be allowed to participate in the Indian Badminton League, the Awadhe Warriors have signed Danish international Mathias Boe in his place.

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The teams of the Indian Badminton League has, for the moment, been finalized. And even though there is still some unanswered questions it is time to take a closer look at the six teams.

The first preview is for the team that most recently changed its name from Lucknow Warriors to Awadhe Warriors. This is the only teamed not named after its host city but after its region.

Owner: Sahara India Pariwar

Coach: Mohammed Hafiz Hashim

Icon Player: P.V. Sindhu, Women's Singles

ROSTER

Name	Country	Category	Salary	WR
P.V. Sindhu	India	Women’s Singles	80.000 US $	12
Chong Wei Feng	Malaysia	Men’s Singles	25.000 US $	15
R.M.V. Gurusaidutt	India	Men’s Singles	40.000 US $	21
Srikanth K.	India	Men’s Singles	34.000 US $	41
Sapsiree Taerattanachai	Thailand	Women’s Single/ Mixed doubles	15.000 US $	14/135
Mathias Boe	Denmark	Men’s Double/ Mixed doubles	-	3/ -
Markis Kido	Indonesia	Men’s Double/ Mixed doubles	15.500 US $	15/9
Maneesha K.	India	Mixed doubles	26.000 US $	223
Nandagopal K.	India	Men’s Double/ Mixed doubles	10.000 US $	248/223
Ruthvika Shivani	India	Women’s Singles	3.000 US $	184

Expected team composition

Cat.	Player(s)	Power rank.
1.MS:	Chong Wei Feng	6th
2.MS:	R.M.V. Gurusaidutt or Srikanth K.	2nd
WS:	P.V. Sindhu	4th
MD:	Mathias Boe/ Markis Kido	3rd
XD:	Markis Kido/ Sapsiree Taerattanachai	3rd

Money in play: 185.500 US$

What is going to happen regarding Maneepong Jongjit. We know that now. He is substituted by Mathias Boe.
This seem to strengthen the men's double, but make the mixed double a bit more shaky as Kido and Sapsiree are not used to playing together.

The mixeddouble was a very reliable card for the Warrios, but now I expect them to struggle a bit at times. This could lead to the Warriors ending up in the danger zone, as they can no longer count on qualifying to the semifinals. In the men's double however Boe should be poised and ready to show the franchises that they made a mistake, not selecting him in the first place. 

That would be a huge blow to the chances of the Awadhe Warriors, as he in my opinion is one of the key players on the team. He is currently playing mixed double with Sapsiree Taerattanachai in international matches, and I would rank them as the top combination for this event. Also his services is required in the men’s doubles together with megastar Markis Kido. But, at the moment it looks like all this goes down the drain. What a disasters that would be for the Warriors.

The Warriors  have a very well balanced team in most categories but they don’t have a good replacement for Jongjit. Kido, of course could play the mixed double, but it would be a scratch pair and in no way as freighening to their opponents as the two Thais, and the men’s doubles would be quite significantly weakened as well.

Chong Wei Feng is a cheap buy for first singles, though he’s not bad at all. However I have him ranked as number six of the first singles, but it is indeed a close race after the top notch Lee Chong Wei. So even though Feng is the lower ranked, I  would not be surprised if he manages to take one or two victories during the two weeks of competition.

On the other hand is the Warriors very strong in the second single. They can tailor their teamcomposition after their opponents, as I expect both Gurusaidutt and Srikanth K. to do well. I think they generally should have the upper hand against all second single opponents except for Marc Zwiebler, and even that match might be a close call.

P.V. Sindhu is ranked 4^th, but the women’s singles  is perhaps the strongest category of all, and what a mouth-watering match we can look forward to when she is to play Saina Nehwal.  I expect her to beat Nicahaon Jindapon and the retired Tine Baun, but she sure stands a chance in all the remaining matches. In case of fatigue or injury Sapsiree Taerattanachai is a very capable replacement for Sindhu, so I really like that acquisition the Warriors made.

I’m not convinced we will see Nandagopal, Shivani or Maneesha on court unless other players are injured or Jongjit is not allowed to participate.

Coaching:  Mohammad Hafiz  Hashim doesn’t really have a proven track record as a coach, and it’s a bit of  surprise to see him in that role. As a player he himself normally stuck to his own playing style no matter what, win or lose. I don’t have high expectations on Hashim to be able to make a big difference in the doubles categories, but perhaps he can make use of his own experience in the singles.

Expected score (with Jongjit): Two to three team wins.

Qualify for the semifinals: Doubtfull

Toughest opponent: Hyderabad Hotshots with women’s singles being the absolute key match.

Notable clashes: Banga Beats. A lot of exciting and crucial encounters in this match. It is the second round of the league on August 15^th and the Warriors are at home in Lucknow.

Conclusion:

With Jongjit on the roster the Warriors are perhaps the most balanced team in the league. Unfortunately they are also the most vulnerable when it comes to male double players, so the Jongjit-case is really life threatening for the team.

 I definitely expect them to do well in 2.MS. If that doesn’t happen them Icon Player P.V. Sindhu will have to step up and impress, and perhaps they could also hope for Chong Wei Feng.

Notice that Feng is not guaranteed a spot on the team, if the H2H indicates that Gurusaidutt has a better chance in 1. MS.

A question mark could be the form of Markis Kido, and that is even more significant should Jongjit be ruled out and the Indonesian veteran is called up for two matches. If that happens they are in real danger of missing the semifinals.

Auction troubles at Indian Badminton League

Maybe we had too high expectations. Maybe I had.

And there really wasn't anything leading up to the Indian Badminton League players auction, that would support this elevated level of expectations.

I somehow just  imagined that it would be better. More professional, better communication....more thoughts and strategy put into it. And maybe it was. If so I just don't get it, but of course that's my headache.

And like I mentioned, there wasn't much to support my expectations. On the contrary actually. The idea of the league surfaced in 2010 or 2011 I believe, and since then it has mostly been rumours. Nothing concrete of any kind but lots of rumours. And even more questions. Who runs the league? Who owns it. What is the format? What is the rules etc....
The Chinese would participate - yes but that would be retired players like Bao Chunlei and Zheng Bo. Everything seemed to be negotiable, and nowhere were reliable information or news to be found. Illustrated excellently when the Leagues homepage went down halfway through the auction.

I really hope this tournament eventually is succesfull, as I believe the world badminton community needs it to help drive the continous development of badminton. But I must say that I'm concerned. How is it going to go when 60 players and lots of officials are going to travel India for 17 days. We just have to keep our fingers crossed.

Strategy

Quite a lot of the franchises  seemed to be taken by surprise at the auction.
Maybe they weren't, but that's surely how it looked to me and the experience I've gained over the past years trying to put a team together on a budget in the Danish League.

 

To me it was impossible to find a red line in the way the franchises acquired players. There might have been one that passed me. That's very possible, I'm not that observant. But anyway there was a lot of bidding that puzzled me.

The way I see it, you could choose to go "the winning way" or the "star-commercial way". Some franchises might have chosen the latter without me being able to spot it. 

Of course one of the two most significant players were Lee Chong Wei, due to his level of play and his dominance over every other player but Lin Dan. The other player being Saina Nehwal, Queen of India and the biggest name in Indian Badminton.

However they probably both became too pricy if you wanted a winning team, as they ended up costing approximately one third of the cap available.

So in my opinion is wasn't a priority for "winning ways" to get one of these two players. On the other hand it would be essential for "star-commercial way".

There are a number of factors to consider putting a winning team together.

First of all it doesn't matter that "my" team cannot beat Chong Wei or Saina. They only count for one point, so the goal is to get three of the remaining four.

And that's important to be aware of - the team consists of five entities. Mens single one and two, Ladies single, Mens double and mixed double.
But the two doubles entities require four players whereas the three singles entities only reqiure three players. What I'm saying is that you have to figure out the price per entity instead of the price per player, and then compare it to expected winning percentages against the players the other franchises acquire.

In this situation I would put a lot of thought into whether it was possible to get a MS player that could win all his matches but against Chong Wei for a reasonable price. At first glance there is no such player available, so I wouldn't spend a lot on the MS1, and I consider P. Kashyap to be overpriced at 75.000 $.

Instead I would look for a very good MS2 and if possible a strong LS that would be able to win all matches except against Saina. Juliane Schenk would be excellent and she ended up 30.000$ cheaper than Saina. She even has a fair chance of beating Saina, and she's not playing the Worlds, so she'll be fresh and hungry coming in to the league.

Buying only one part of a double seems questionable as well.

Especially if that one is expensive. So buying only Carsten Mogensen without Mathias Boe seems foolish to me. Even Joachim Fischer, who is an outstanding team player, would no doubt benefit from playing with Christinna Pedersen instead of Ponnappa. 

The mixed category though, hasn't been given a lot of attention by the franchises and I feel points are up for grabs there.
Warriors - I can't believe they just changed their name - have a strong combination of Jongjit/Sapsiree. Sapsiree is an excellent buy at a bargain of only 15.000, as she can also substitue for P.V. Sindhu in case of injury. The same goes for her partner - if Bodin Issara hasn't hospitalized him - Maneepong Jongjit, who could also form a mens double with Markis Kidho.

I also like The Smashers selection of V. Diju to support Gutta Jwala, but they need to score at least 0.600 in winning percentage to justify the unit price of 61.000$

Another excellent buy is Vladimir Ivanov at 15.000$ as the versatile Russian can be fielded in all three categories.

Acquirings that mystifies me is Pradnya Gadre at a whopping 46.000$ - what has she produced that can justify that price? - and some expensive back-up players of 10.000 or more. After all you only need seven players in a team match, so don't overpay players that won't be able to make difference anyway.

 

Top 3 buys:

1) Maneepong Jongjit, Awadha Warriors, 10.000

2) Lim Kim Wah/ V Goh Shem, Hyderabad Hotshots, 20.000

3) Juliane Schenk, Pune Pistons, 90.000

 

Top 3 risky buys:

1) Pradnya Gadre, Hyderabad Hotshots, 46.000

2) Saina Nehwal, Hyderabad Hotshots, 120.000

3) Hu Yun, Banga Beats, 50.000